Friday, July 17, 2009

FX Intervention: Still Possible

Earlier in the week, the Forex Blog reported that the potential for intervention in the forex markets seemed to have declined, due to a brief Dollar rally and toned-down rhetoric at the most recent G8 conference. However, we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that the intellectual justification for intervention remains. While statistics have not been forthcoming, it appears that Sovereign Wealth Funds and Central Banks are paring their exposure to Dollar assets, which is both a cause and effect of Dollar weakness. In addition, the falling Dollar and rising oil prices have reinforced each other, and contributed to surging inflation around the world. Investment Banks are advising clients now would be a perfect time for the world’s economic policymakers to take coordinated action. reports:
In his testimony yesterday, Ben Bernanke, stated that “dollar Intervention should be done rarely” but that it “may be justified in disorderly times.”[In addition,] Treasury Secretary Paulson said last month that he would never rule out currency intervention as a potential policy tool.

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